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Видовдан in English: Boba Borojevic Serbia : Country At Economic Risk
Постављено 30.11.2008
Тема:

Serbia : Country At Economic Risk
By Boba Borojevic


Ottawa - November 2008 -- The present global economic crisis will create tectonic economic, political and social changes around the world. “The current lull in the financial crisis is temporary and indicates a new round of turmoil that will erupt in 2009,” explained Srdja Trifkovic in his column “ America needs Serbia - vassal” published in Glas-javnosti (Nov. 14, 2008). “Just as in 1929 when the Great depression started, we had the calm in 1930 before economic catastrophe severely hit most nations of the world in 1931,” and Serbia will not be immune. With decreased domestic production and increased imports from other European countries, Serbia ’s current account deficit stands at 17 percent of GDP.

According to the Bloomberg news, Serbia secured a $516 million standby loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the fourth eastern European nation beside Hungary , Belarus and Ukraine to ask the institution for funds in order to stabilize its economy during the global financial crisis. Attempts by Serbia ’s government to increase spending on social programs may lead to inflation hitting 10.5 percent this year. The IMF has warned Serbia that government overspending may push the current-account deficit in 2008 above 18 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), which it must cover through increased borrowing. BusinessWeek.com has already named Serbia a “nation at risk”.

Is Serbia going bankrupt and, if it is, what are the consequences?

According to the international advisory group Alexis International Ltd. the consequences for a bankrupt nation are “that the creditors are in charge and tell the 'debtor' nation what the deliverables are. If the debtor does not do what he is told by the creditor there are severe consequences. Basically countries cannot import more than they export. If they import more they pile up deficits that will eventually crush them. Deficit nations will be forced to adjust their standard of living to their manufacturing base - a painful process, especially for de-industrialized nations like the US , Serbia etc.” Bankrupt nations are being enslaved by their creditors.

While the US media speculate what approach will be taken towards the construction of a new financial world order set-up by the new administration of President Elect Barack Obama, Alexis International Ltd. states that “it is totally irrelevant what Obama does or does not do. He is a trustee in bankruptcy for the US . The US has not come to grips with the fact that they are a debtor nation and will be treated accordingly. The implosion will be cataclysmic and very ugly,” they explained. “What people don't seem to get is the fact that 95% of all wealth has already been destroyed permanently. The baby boomers are going to dwell in poverty for the rest of their lives. Here and elsewhere.” Alexis Int. predicts that Russia and the other creditor nations (Germany, China, Japan , Gulf States) have only a very small time window to get on top of things. “If they fall into the trap of the G7 banksters they are done. For the time being China seems to be the only one getting it and acting accordingly.”

If such an unwelcoming future awaits the US , once the most powerful nation on earth, what is going to happen to Serbia ?
It is hard to say if Serbia ’s authorities will come up with a new, urgently needed economic plan that will shield Serbia from the turmoil. One thing is certain, they are aware of the harsh time ahead of Serbia . As per Serbia’s Governor Radovan Jelasic: “while we know that, after these turbulences in the global financial market, nothing will be the same, all we know about the crisis itself is that it has reached one of its many peaks over the past few weeks and that its depth and duration cannot be foreseen.” The Alexis International advisors are more blunt in their assessment: "The front end of the storm has not even touched the ground yet and we all know that the devastation always comes at the tail end of the storm. There are approx. $800 trillion of US$ denominated derivatives floating around in the markets; the global GDP is approx. $65 trillion; the entire global asset base is approx. $75 trillion.The US Dollar and the EURO are both doomed. It is only a question of time.You do the math. This is the time of great opportunities for those who see through the battle smoke. Behind every rainstorm there is a rainbow and sunshine."

 

 


 
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